2025 Private Jet Market Outlook and Projections

2025 Private Jet Market Outlook and Projections 

The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped numerous luxury sectors, none more significantly than private aviation. As global travel patterns shifted dramatically, private jets became not just a symbol of wealth, but a crucial tool for safety, flexibility, and convenience. Now, as we approach 2025, understanding the trajectory of the private jet market is vital for industry stakeholders, from manufacturers and financial institutions to private aviation enthusiasts. Let’s take a look at what’s ahead in 2025.

Surge in Demand During the Pandemic

The pandemic marked a watershed moment for the private aviation industry. As travel restrictions and safety concerns around crowded commercial flights intensified, many affluent individuals turned to private jets. This shift was driven by a need for both security and flexibility in travel, as private jets offered the ability to avoid crowded airports and adhere to personal safety protocols.

According to Global Jet Capital, demand for private jets surged by over 20% during the height of the pandemic, with North America—accounting for 64% of global business jet deliveries—seeing the most significant growth. The North American market, in particular, experienced a dramatic increase in private flight hours, as well as a rise in the number of first-time buyers entering the market.

This surge in demand was not only reflected in the number of private jets in the sky but also in the steep rise in the values of both new and pre-owned aircraft. For example, some business jets saw an appreciation of 10-20% in value, a rarity in an industry that typically sees depreciation over time.

OEMs: Backlogs and White-Tail Aircraft

The rush to purchase private jets during the pandemic created a bottleneck in production that has persisted into 2025. Major Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), such as Textron, Gulfstream, Embraer, and Bombardier, experienced unprecedented backlogs due to the sudden spike in demand.

• Gulfstream (owned by General Dynamics) reported in 2022 that it had a backlog of over 200 aircraft for models like the G650, G700, and G800, with wait times stretching as far as 18-24 months. Gulfstream’s G700 had a reported delivery delay of up to 30 months due to supply chain disruptions and high demand for its luxury features.
• Textron Aviation (maker of Cessna Citation jets) faced similar issues, with its Citation Longitude and Citation Latitude models having a backlog of approximately 18-20 months in early 2023. Textron also experienced strong demand for its King Air turboprop series, which has been facing delays as well.
• Embraer’s Praetor 500 and Praetor 600 models were also impacted by production delays, with backlogs extending up to 18 months in certain cases. Embraer is the third-largest business jet manufacturer in the world and has reported increases in demand from both the North American and Latin American markets.
• Bombardier has seen significant backlogs, particularly for its Global 7500 and Global 8000 models. The company reported that the backlog for the Global 7500 reached more than 50 aircraft in late 2022, and buyers had to wait at least 18 months for deliveries.

‍Current Backlogs‍

‍Surplus Inventory and Market Dynamics Post-COVIDAs the pandemic's immediate effects have subsided, the market for private jets has entered a new phase. Although some manufacturers are still clearing out white-tail inventory, the overall supply of new jets remains constrained due to the continued pressure of backlogs. This imbalance between supply and demand has led to higher valuations, not just for new jets but for pre-owned models as well.Additionally, Global Jet Capital notes that the pre-owned jet market is experiencing its own set of challenges. While the market saw a massive surge in aircraft sales during the pandemic, the post-pandemic years have revealed a growing scarcity of quality used jets, as many potential sellers have opted to hold on to their planes amid ongoing supply chain delays for new aircraft. Consequently, prices for used jets have remained elevated, often exceeding their historical average price by as much as 10%.At the same time, the production of new jets is being gradually ramped up as supply chains recover. However, it is expected that some bottlenecks will persist into 2025, particularly in areas like avionics and key components, which are still experiencing longer-than-expected production times due to global chip shortages and other supply chain disruptions.

‍Michael J. Smith from Scope Aircraft Finance
‍Michael J. Smith from Scope Aircraft Finance shared a positive outlook on the turbine jet markets, highlighting key trends since COVID-19 and offering his projections for 2025. He noted a remarkable rise in aircraft values, driven by strong demand across all market segments, which was particularly bolstered by the ultra-low interest rates from 2020 to 2022. “Since COVID, we’ve seen impressive increases in aircraft values, supported by a surge in demand across all segments,” Smith said.Looking ahead to 2025, Smith anticipates a return to more gradual value depreciation as market demand stabilizes and interest rates adjust to higher levels. He emphasized the importance of keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve’s target rate and the long-term trajectory of interest rates. Despite these adjustments, Smith pointed out that demand has remained robust since the pandemic, with some transactions even being deferred into 2025 in anticipation of favorable tax policies under the new administration. “Overall, demand has been strong since COVID, and the market fundamentals remain solid for continued stability moving forward,” Smith concluded.


Looking to 2025 and Beyond: What’s Next for Private Aviation?
‍As we approach 2025, several key factors will shape the future of private jet values and demand:

1. Continued Demand for Flexibility: Although the acute need for private jets driven by COVID-19 may have diminished, many wealthy individuals and corporations have found value in the flexibility and privacy offered by private aviation. As business and leisure travel continues to rebound, demand for private jets is expected to remain strong, particularly in North America and Europe.
2. Rising Environmental Concerns: Environmental factors may also play a role in shaping the future of private aviation. The sector is already exploring greener alternatives such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), hybrid-electric engines, and more efficient aircraft designs. Manufacturers like Gulfstream and Bombardier have already made strides in making their aircraft more environmentally friendly, and it’s likely that these efforts will accelerate in the coming years, potentially influencing purchasing decisions and regulatory frameworks.
3. Advanced Technologies and Luxury Features: Private jet manufacturers are continuing to innovate with the introduction of advanced technologies and luxury amenities. From cutting-edge cockpit technology to ultra-luxurious interiors with wellness and privacy features, aircraft are becoming increasingly specialized to meet the high demands of their owners. Expect to see greater customization options and a focus on onboard comfort and connectivity.
4. Potential Market Correction: As backlogs clear and the white-tail inventory is exhausted, some analysts predict that private jet prices could stabilize or even correct slightly. However, the long-term outlook remains positive as the ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) population grows globally, particularly in emerging markets such as Asia and the Middle East.
5. Increased Focus on Helicopters and Urban Air Mobility: While jets continue to dominate private aviation, the increasing interest in short-range, high-speed travel has spurred growth in the helicopter market and concepts related to urban air mobility (UAM). Companies like Joby Aviation and Vertical Aerospace are working on electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, which could offer an additional layer of convenience and luxury travel in urban settings.

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